Business confidence among European companies, as measured by CFOs’ outlooks, is deteriorating, highlighting that uncertainty has reached particularly high levels. According to a Deloitte analysis conducted this spring, 48% of European CFOs and 52% of Italian CFOs say they are more pessimistic about their financial trajectory, while revenue expectations remain relatively solid, with 55% of European CFOs and 51% of Italian CFOs forecasting revenue growth. The picture thus reveals a divergence between resilient demand and earnings prospects, with the risk of margin compression due to persistent cost inflation, pricing pressures, and geopolitical tensions. In fact, margin expectations remain cautious, although Italian CFOs show slightly greater confidence than the European average, with 39% anticipating an improvement, compared to 35%.
Italy stands out for a relatively more prudent yet also more resilient approach to managing employment and investments. Fifty-five percent of Italian CFOs expect to keep headcount stable, and 52% plan to maintain CAPEX at current levels, while 26% anticipate new hires and 29% expect an increase in investments—percentages that indicate a greater propensity to preserve operational capacity and competitive positioning compared to the European context. At the same time, geopolitical tensions represent the main risk for Italian companies, cited by 73% of CFOs, ahead of the risk of recession (64%) and commodity price volatility (55%). These are followed by high inflation (35%) and rising costs (33%). External uncertainty is perceived as high or very high by 78% of Italian CFOs, and 93% believe that the current environment is not conducive to risk-taking, reflecting a more defensive stance.
Corporate strategies focus primarily on reducing costs and strengthening financial resilience. Fifty-six percent of Italian CFOs cite cost containment as a priority, 31% aim to increase operating cash flow, and 26% keep digital transformation and innovation at the top of their agenda, particularly in light of recent developments in AI. Growth initiatives, on the other hand, are taking on a more selective nature, prioritizing established markets (27%) and organic growth (22%). At the European level, cost reduction ranks among the top three priorities in all countries analyzed, while approximately 45% of CFOs focus their growth strategies on existing markets and organic growth. Overall, this points to a shift from strategies primarily focused on growth to a more risk-management-oriented approach, in which efficiency, margin protection, financial flexibility, and targeted investments become the main tools for addressing the uncertainty of the next 12–24 months.
