News / Insights

The ResPublica Foundation has published the tenth edition of the "Economic Thermometer," a bimonthly indicator—produced in collaboration with ISTAT—that includes 40 summary indicators designed to provide a timely assessment of the country’s economic health. The Thermometer is supplemented by an analysis of ten "essays" selected by the Foundation, which offer a forward-looking analysis of the opportunities and risks that may affect the country in the coming months.

Growth forecasts for 2024 have been revised downward (+0.7%), but investments under the PNRR could stimulate GDP between 2025 and 2026. Despite progress in reducing the deficit and debt, the economy continues to be affected by weak international trade and low business confidence. In the third quarter, employment remained at high levels, accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate. On the production front, industry showed signs of slowing with a decline in output and confidence, while the services sector maintained stable momentum. Inflation remained under control, but rising production costs, particularly for energy, could slow the downward trend in prices observed in recent months.

In the real estate market, the second quarter of 2024 saw an increase in sales (+2.7% compared to the same period in 2023), against a significant decrease in building permits (-9.1%). Construction investment remained stagnant, with a contraction in the residential sector, attributable to the end of building incentives and monetary tightening. In contrast, the non-residential sector posted growth, partially offsetting the weakness in the housing sector. For 2025, demand for mortgages is expected to drive a recovery in the residential sector, while infrastructure investments linked to the PNRR could support the non-residential sector, despite project delays that risk slowing the use of funds.