News / From the associates

According to the latest economic report published by Kroll, the improvement in the macroeconomic outlook, combined with the narrowing of the BTP-Bund spread to historic lows in December, has bolstered the country’s appeal, even amid a context still marked by geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainties. In 2025, the Italian economy showed signs of a slight recovery, with GDP growth revised upward by the IMF to +0.5% for the current year (compared to the +0.4% estimated in April) and projections of +0.8% in 2026 and +0.6% in 2027, though it remains among the weakest in the eurozone. Inflation fell to 1% annually in November, with core inflation at +1.5% for 2025, allowing the ECB to stabilize rates following the last cut on June 5, 2025, and confirm the main refinancing rate at 2.15%.

The volume of commercial real estate investments reached a new all-time high of €12.3 billion in 2025, up 26% from 2024, with a particularly dynamic second half of the year.

Retail was the main driver with €3.4 billion (28% of the total), followed by hospitality and healthcare with €2.9 billion (24%, +45% year-on-year), logistics at 2.15 billion (17%, +26%), and offices at 1.8 billion (approximately 15%, down 18%). Residential stood at 1.15 billion (9%), with the “Living” segment growing by nearly 70% and student housing playing a central role. Foreign capital accounted for 57% of investment flows (35% from the U.S., 23% from France, 10% from the U.K.), and the weight of regional markets strengthened, growing by 88% compared to 2024, while Milan and Rome accounted for 31% and 11% of volumes, respectively.

Looking specifically at major cities, Milan saw an acceleration in urban regeneration and mixed-use projects, with a strong focus on residential, student, and senior housing, also supported by initiatives related to the 2026 Winter Olympics. In Rome, investments were driven by the 2025 Jubilee and the Next Generation Rome plan, which allocates approximately 14 billion euros to infrastructure, mobility, and hospitality. The report also includes an in-depth analysis of Turin, a city undergoing transformation thanks to the redevelopment of brownfield sites and PNRR infrastructure, with a dynamic residential market and growing demand for modern rentals, supported by the university presence and the creation of new public and cultural spaces.

In the first half of 2025, private real estate funds reached 891 vehicles (+37 year-over-year), while retail funds remained at just six. In the asset allocation of private funds, there was an increase in hotels (+18%) and logistics (+7.6%), while the office sector remained stable; although still the dominant sector, it fell to 36.9% of the total (compared to 48.7% in Europe). Retail in Italy accounts for 17.1% (11.1% in Europe) and logistics for 17% (11.9% in Europe), while residential remains stable. The outlook for 2026 remains positive thanks to lower borrowing costs and the return of international investors, with particular interest in high-end hospitality, living and student housing, logistics, data centers, and alternative assets.