News / From the associates

This C&W report analyzes the impact of the current crisis in the Middle East on commercial real estate (CRE). The ongoing conflict is creating an environment of high macroeconomic uncertainty, with indirect but significant effects on the real estate industry as well. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sharp rise in global energy prices, with oil prices consistently above $100 per barrel and significant increases in fuel costs. Although Europe is relatively less exposed in terms of gas supplies, the impact is being felt through inflation and production costs, with ripple effects on supply chains, consumption, and economic expectations. This scenario is already influencing monetary policies, making the path to rate cuts more uncertain and increasing the likelihood of tighter financial conditions compared to initial scenarios.

For the real estate industry, the impacts manifest differently across various segments and are primarily mediated by the macroeconomic context. In the logistics and industrial sectors, rising transportation costs and potential supply chain disruptions affect the movement of goods and may generate second-round inflationary pressures, in addition to slowing construction activity and new supply. The retail sector is feeling the pinch from the squeeze on household disposable income, with spending shifting toward essential goods and a resulting reduction in discretionary consumption. In the office segment, the effects appear more limited in the short term but include a possible increase in remote work due to mobility costs, while in the medium term, any signs of an economic slowdown could affect demand for space.

On the capital markets front, 2026 began with relatively positive investment trends, but the new geopolitical context introduces elements of caution. Increased uncertainty and inflationary risks could prompt investors to reconsider their strategies, with a possible temporary reduction in volumes and greater selectivity in allocations. Looking ahead, there would be a growing focus on more resilient and defensive assets, capable of offering stable cash flows and growth potential even in complex scenarios. Although no significant upward pressure on real estate yields is expected in the immediate term, the evolution of monetary policies and the macroeconomic landscape will remain the main driver for the market in the coming months.