News / From the associates

According to Hines’ forecast report, the global economy at the start of 2026 shows divergent trends across major regions: Asia continues to be the main driver of growth and, according to the consensus among analysts, is expected to post higher growth rates over the next five years than Europe and the United States, supported in part by the International Monetary Fund’s upward revisions to its forecasts for the next two years. Europe, on the other hand, is experiencing more moderate but stable economic growth, in line with or slightly above long-term averages, driven primarily by expansionary fiscal policies linked to increased spending on defense and infrastructure. In Germany alone, debt-financed public investment could exceed €1 trillion over the next five years. In the United States, the economy remains resilient, but signs of a slowdown are emerging in the labor market, while more persistent inflation is making the rate-cutting cycle more gradual than in Europe.

In the real estate market, Europe and Asia appear to have already passed the trough of the cycle in 2025, while in the United States the recovery appears more recent and still in its early stages. In Europe, investment volumes have temporarily slowed, but the decline in swap rates and credit spreads could reactivate capital flows, making real estate returns competitive once again; Furthermore, a potential further weakening of the dollar against the euro could increase the attractiveness of European investments for international capital. In Asia, investor sentiment remains generally positive, with stable transaction volumes and a more robust recovery in developed markets compared to China and India, while in the United States, the recovery in investment volumes has been delayed by political and monetary uncertainties.

From an asset class perspective, the European market is benefiting primarily from significant supply constraints. In the office sector, for example, the launch of new projects has plummeted by over 80% from the 2021 peak, particularly in urban centers where a scarcity of buildable land and permitting challenges further limit development, supporting rental rates for high-quality properties. Similar trends are observed in logistics and residential real estate: new logistics development starts have decreased by 68%, and the shortage of new housing supply continues to drive rent growth. Hines forecasts average price growth for Europe over the next five years of 7.5% annually in retail, 5.5% in offices, and 4.1% in residential.

Overall, while Asia remains the main driver of global growth and the United States is undergoing a more gradual recovery, Europe appears to be supported by solid real estate fundamentals and a marked shortage of supply, factors that could fuel a period of value growth in the coming years.