News / From the associates

According to Gabetti’s latest residential market update, 2025 is on track for continued growth, with sales up 9.2% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2024, and up 6.5% in the top ten cities. This positive trend is driven by mortgage-backed purchases, which account for 46.3% of transactions and recorded quarterly increases of 32.8%, 20%, and 15.9%, while cash purchases remain stable. Average property values are showing signs of stabilization, with a national average price of €1,743 per square meter and an increase in average square footage to 109 square meters, reflecting continued strong demand—especially for three-bedroom units—and a supply that is more heavily weighted toward four-bedroom units. Major cities are recording price increases of 1.4% in 2025, with more modest growth of 0.7% expected in 2026, while total Italian transactions are projected to reach 785,770, confirming that the 2023–2024 contraction phase has been overcome.

Purchase intentions in 2025 show a recovery compared to previous years, rising from 2.2% in Q1 to a peak of 3.8% in Q3 and closing the year at 3.2%, indicating a return of optimism among households driven by stable interest rates, which fluctuate between 3.27% and 3.30%. Mortgage applications show an increase in the average loan amount to €141,830, with significant growth in the €100,001–€150,000 range (38.1%) and in loans exceeding €150,000, reflecting rising prices and a reduction in available liquidity. The supply of new construction is concentrated in the major cities of the North and Center, with Rome and Milan accounting for 10.8% of the total, and favors three-bedroom units as the most sought-after type (40.8%), while demand for two-bedroom units exceeds supply, highlighting imbalances between buyer preferences and market availability.

Finally, the rental market continues to grow at a more moderate pace compared to previous years, with a 1.7% increase in the first nine months of 2025. Demand is driven by young people, singles, and couples with young children, with a focus on long-term leases (40%), followed by temporary (29%) and negotiated (25%) leases, while student leases remain marginal (6%). Rents in the top ten cities show a slowdown, with a 1.8% decline in the third quarter and a slight recovery of 0.2% in the fourth, indicating a market stabilization phase. There is also a growing share of new leases for partial housing units (32% of the total), reflecting both a need for flexibility and a context of limited affordability for home purchases.