News / From the associates

This report by Cushman & Wakefield analyzes the potential impact on economic growth and the European real estate market of the policies adopted by U.S. President Donald Trump during the first 100 days of his second term.

The new tariffs imposed by the United States and the instability of global trade will contribute to slowing down the European economy, although the outlook remains positive overall, with growth more moderate than forecast at the beginning of the year. A shift in fiscal policy is also supporting the macroeconomic outlook: several European governments are adopting more expansionary measures, with increased public spending on defense, infrastructure, and the energy transition. This new fiscal stimulus could have positive effects on employment, the revival of the manufacturing sector, and an increase in demand for office space, particularly in technology and defense-related sectors. The European commercial real estate market began 2025 in a relatively stable environment, supported by solid demand and early signs of recovery on the investment front. Protectionist strategies are prompting many companies to reorganize their supply chains, with a growing reliance on onshore and nearshore operations. This trend is fueling demand for logistics and industrial assets across the continent. After seven consecutive quarters of contraction, capital values grew by 5% to 6% across all major asset classes in the fourth quarter of 2024. Forecasts indicate cumulative value growth of over 9% over the next two years, supported by more favorable financing conditions and a gradual reduction in interest rates by central banks. However, the imposition of tariffs on key materials such as steel and aluminum could put further pressure on construction costs, prompting some developers to postpone or scale back new projects, particularly in segments with tighter margins such as offices and retail. In this scenario, existing, well-located properties could benefit from growing demand, especially in the prime and logistics sectors. Although the weakening dollar may reduce the attractiveness of the European market for U.S. investors, rising global uncertainty is driving capital toward assets perceived as safer and more liquid. This environment could spur a resurgence of interest in real estate, offering new opportunities to European investors amid reduced international competition.