News / Insights

The Bank of Italy’s “Note on the Business Survey” highlights a widespread improvement in assessments of home sales prices in the fourth quarter of 2025. The balance between those expecting price increases and those expecting decreases rose to +9 percentage points, an improvement both compared to the previous quarter and on a year-over-year basis. The trend is positive across most of the country, with stronger momentum in urban areas of Central Italy and non-urban areas of the Northeast, while the picture remains more mixed in the South and on the Islands. Negotiation margins remain limited: the average discount stands at around 8%, near historic lows, and sales times remain very short, at 5.5 months. The share of agencies that completed at least one sale reached nearly 90%, a high figure even for the winter quarter, indicating a market that remains liquid and active.

On the demand side, signs of a gradual recovery are emerging. The balance regarding potential buyers has narrowed to -5 points (from -15 in the previous quarter), with a more marked improvement in metropolitan areas. Supply, on the other hand, continues to contract: the balance of pending listings stands at -33.6 points and that of new listings at -30.2, confirming a trend of product scarcity, particularly evident in areas experiencing the greatest price pressures. Financing conditions remain favorable: approximately 64% of purchases are financed by a mortgage, and the loan-to-value ratio remains around 78%, at historically high levels. Difficulties in accessing credit have a limited impact on the termination of listings, while the main reason for termination remains the gap between the asking price and the buyer’s offer.

On the rental front, rents continue to rise, albeit at a slowing pace: the balance between assessments of increases and decreases drops to +37.9 points. Pressure on rents is attributed primarily to reduced supply, also in relation to the spread of short-term rentals, reported as significant by over half of the agencies. The perceived impact is stronger on medium- to long-term rents than on sales prices, where the effect is judged to be more limited. Expectations for early 2026 remain focused on further rent increases and a moderate improvement in national prospects, while greater caution prevails regarding local markets and the trend in new listings for sale. Overall, the picture that emerges is of a market supported by gradually consolidating demand and still-favorable financial conditions, but characterized by persistent supply-side constraints, a factor that continues to significantly influence price dynamics and market structure.